12/21/11 — "Mental health and law enforcement officials in California are trying to find ways to hold violent psychiatric patients accountable without punishing people for being sick."

11/27/11 — "Over the last two decades, changes in state policy and big cuts in funding for community mental health care have pushed hundreds of thousands of mentally ill people into county jails and state prisons."

Random forest modeling techniques represent an improvement over the methodologies of traditional risk prediction instruments. Random forests allow for the inclusion of a large number of predictors, the use of a variety of different data sources, the expansion of assessments beyond binary outcomes, and taking the costs of different types of forecasting errors into account when constructing a new model. This study explores the application of random forest statistical learning techniques to a criminal risk forecasting system, which is now used to classify adult probationers by the level of risk they pose to the community. To download this report, click here.

This issue of the National Council Magazine focuses on the crisis in our nation's jails and prisons resulting from men and women with mental illnesses and substance use disorders incarcerated due to the lack of treatment opportunities and emphasizes the possibilities of effective services.